I was bored tonight and decided to try and figure out a good mathematical way to determine strength of schedule among teams. The best method I could think of was to simply divide opponent wins by opponent loses, not rocket science, i know. 1 of course being .500. This way it doesn't matter how many games each team plays in a season, its based on their win percentage. Of course this could only be done once the season is completed. It also would not take into consideration opponents from other states (this would increase the number slightly since most teams being played from other states have good records) or ties (that may require a higher level of math). Any other good suggestions. And yes, this was done after I finished studying.

So far....

Aiken - 1.7
Irmo - 1.56
Dorman - 1.53
Mauldin - 1.45
James Island - 1.386
Fort Mill - 1.36 (1.49 w/MP(NC)8-3, Prov(NC)11-2)
Spring Valley - 1.350
West Ashley - 1.336
Lex. - 1.2
Hilton Head - 1.2
Wando - 1.14
Ft. D - 1.010
TL Hanna - .927
Summerville - .91
Dutch Fork - .91

any flaws to this method...
or am i just a complete idiot...

Always good to analyze the game. Kyle and Kevin send the stats away every year (with a little help, right Brian!) to the BCS guys to find the toughest team in the state regardless of class. They also measure strength of schedule, rank of offense, and rank of defense. Maybe the powers that be can offer some insight.

Yeah, this probably isn't the most accurate method, obviously the BCS guys overshadow me, but it does give a brief oversight of 4A.

Nice work Joe. Would love to see this done for 3A and done for all teams overall, as several of the 3A teams regularly beat some of the listed 4A teams. In any event an interesting perspective.

3A

Eastside - 2.22456 Impressive
Myrtle Beach - 1.7974
Riverside - 1.64356
Greenville - 1.55384
Dreher - 1.48148
JL Mann - 1.4468
Airport - 1.42156
Chapin - 1.42
BC - 1.2522
Wade Hampton - 1.2459
Socastee - 1.1875
Clover - .9649
AC Flora - .92248
Daniel - .86111
Belton-Honea Path - .65555

Toughest Schedule ding ding.... Eastside!!!!

So...if you're a 4-A team...let's say Fort Mill...and if a team in your region...let's say Lancaster...that you have to play twice plays a lot of local 1-A, 2-A, and/or 3-A teams of the caliber of...oh, let's say Andrew Jackson, Lewisville, and Indian Land, then that makes your strength of schedule higher.

But playing against a team like Northwestern...who has actually played against many more top-ranked 4-A and 3-A teams...makes your strength of schedule lower.

I don't know...

Hey, that Lancaster team sounds really familiar!

How is this for an incredibly simple alternative? Count the "red", higher is better ("red" refers to opponents on a team's scheduled who are ranked.)

Thus, as an example, here are a couple of 4-A teams:

Hilton Head: 9
Irmo: 9
Wando: 8
Summerville: 7
Dorman: 7
Spring Valley: 7
Mauldin: 5
Dutch Fork: 4
Fort Mill: 2 (4 including NC teams)

Here are region and non-region oponents for Northwestern:
4A
#1,2,3,5,10,13
3A
#6 good question Chico how does this work?

shouldn't we consider how many matches were won against ranked teams as well?

well then you have to take into consideration. Ok Summerville plays 7 teams in the "Red" category, and yet their combined totals of all the teams they play are not above .500. So just because you play 7 ranked teams, there are obviously several, "below par" teams being played also. But yes, i never said it was perfect, I asked for suggestions, but just looking at "red" doesn't mean they have a tougher schedule. Lancaster plays teams that they can compete with, no shame in that. Northwestern plays lancaster just like FM does so it will help out both of them, somewhat,and they also play rockhill and gaffney, just like FM, so based on that. Northwestern actually has a 1.463 so they have one of the tougher schedules in 4A I simply did not calculate their schedule strength. They actually have a tougher schedule then FM.

- Ricky

I thought about that, but it doesn't actually determine the strength of schedule, thats getting into how good a team is. I'm simply determining strength based on wins and loses.

"Red" doesn't mean they have a tougher schedule?

Aren't ranked teams in red? Therefore are they not more advanced teams than those not in red? Therefore having more advanced teams on your schedule would make it more difficult, right?

Well, when you look at strength of SCHEDULE, you have to take into consideration ALL TEAMS. Not just ranked ones. Because they are ranked teams is great, but you have to look at the teams that they are beating 16-0, that hurts your schedule, just like ranked teams help your schedule. When Wando, JI, and West Ashley are done beating the crap out of each other, they play teams like Berkley, Goose Creek, Colleton County, Stratford. Which have an average of 3 wins per season.

Would you also consider teams who were ranked earlier in the year? Spartanburg for example, who i believe should be ranked in the top 15 in 4A.

Yeah, well NW should be ranked in the top 15, also. Just my opinion. But in the end, W-L are what matters. At the end of the year, the stats are sent off to the people with BCS to calculate the schedule strengths, this was just a quick calculation. No computer involved, just fingers and toes.

>>[anonymousjoe] well But yes, i never said it was perfect, I asked for suggestions, but just looking at "red" doesn't mean they have a tougher schedule. Lancaster plays teams that they can compete with, no shame in that.<<

While there's no shame in it, it seriously compromises the fundamental assumptions on which your system is based. In your system team A seeking to play easier schedules that another team plays increases the schedule strength of team B when team A plays team B.

Putting it more simply...any system in which a "win" is a "win" regardless of opponent isn't going to yield the strength of schedule. You did a great job of recognizing that with the "no shame" comment.

Ok, with the exception of lancaster, who is getting increasingly better over the last couple of years (i believe it was 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime against FM, the first game was only 5-0, heck Wando beat West Ashley 5-0), most bad teams, have bad records.