futbol(soccer): If we assume all teams are equal, then in any age bracket with eight teams and three rounds there is a 93.75% probability that one or both of the teams that reach the finals were not the incoming premier teams.
Your premise that "...at the state cup level the mental aspect usually is the deciding factor." coupled with your theory that emphasizing the underdog factor would seem to mean that we should see over a 93.75% change in one or both of the teams (assuming complete equality).
Thus, if only a 60% change in the combination occurs, that means that at least 33.75 points are due to other factors: coaching, talent, increased challenge of RIIIPL, etc.) That's where I'm being woefully stupid here; I don't understand how the advantage of "SCYSA rep is clearly the underdog - true" is manifested in your prediction.
Interesting stuff...thanks for discussing this.
P.S. As an exercise left to the reader, what is the probability given equal teams that a club with one set of teams in each bracket of the U15-U18 challenge cup will win all of the titles? (Hint: It's pretty low.)
P.P.S. LE Dude - I know...if you wanted to read a probability textbook, you'd take Probability 101...sorry...
