My gut says that Dorman will end up the #2 seed in Region 2 (even though I don't know the tie breaker), so I think that Lex could see Dorman in the second round. This might be strecthing things a bit since nothing is final, but that means they would have to beat Dorman, NW, and THEN play for the upper state against another solid team. That's a tough road if there ever was one.