Here are the regular season 4-A goals scored results for the top ten teams, a surrogate for the best offenses in 4-A:
1) Mauldin 43
2) Dutch Fork 62
3) West Ashley 74
4) Wando 81
5) Summerville 84
6) Spartanburg 43
7) James Island 59
8) Irmo 42
9) Dorman 47
0) Ridgeview 49
(Games reported as of 4/16/03)
lpaf
Looks good on paper but what teams were they playing when a lot of the goals were scored.
I think you pointed this fact out it one of your
comments earlier in the season.
pt --
I agree completely. Region 8, for example, is notoriously weak, excepting Summerville. Goals scored against top 15 teams might be another way to judge overall offense. Here's another analysis of team strength (it still doesn't do away with the bias of an easy schedule) that divides total goals scored by total goals given up ( plus one ) for the top ten teams. (I decided to arbitrarily add one goal given up to avoid the mathmatical impasse of dividing by zero if the case ever arose. You could also count the extra goal given up as the one that bounced off the post and should have gone in...)
Total goals scored divided by goals given up +1
1) Mauldin 7.2
2) Dutch Fork 7.8
3) West Ashley 18.5
4) Wando 10.1
5) Summerville 14.0
6) Spartanburg 6.1
7) James Island 7.4
8) Irmo 3.5
9) Dorman 4.3
0) Ridgeview 3.5
(Games reported as of 4/16/03)
Goals given up is a much more valid indicator of how good the defense is than total goals are of how good the offense is state wide. Nobody ever gives up extra goals just for the fun of it.
Happy Easter
lpaf
I would like for you to do the analysis you suggested of only looking at game swithin the top 10 or 15.
I looked at goals vs against with the top 7
Mauldin 20/5 = 4.0
Dutch Fork 27/7 = 3.8
W Ashley 5/5 = 1.0
Wando 31/10 = 3.1
Summerville 13/6 = 2.0
James Island 12/7 = 1.7
Spartenburg 3/4 = .75
Upstate looks pretty strong.
what if a team in that list you were posting...about 95% of the goals scored against them were scored when the coach put in the 2nd string forwards in for defenders...statistics show nothing. Just wait for the playoffs
usc2914 --
In my opinion the denominator is the only important number. In the current haves vs have nots regional play goals scored is of no importance. Some compilation of goals relinquished, total wins and goals scored, in that order of improtance, is the way to look at the current real standings. Another option is to wait three weeks and go retrospective.
Happy Easter to all.
lpaf
carolina2914 --
A clarification:
Experience is that weak teams do not score against strong teams, even after substitution. The inverse is the case. Coaches tend to substitute weaker offenses and leave their defenses relatively unchanged. The net result is that the lesser played second string offenses invoke hellfire and brimstone upon the weak opposition and run the score up even more.
Opposing opinions invited.
lpaf
well my experience is that my coach wasn't exactly the smartest of people...she likes to switch people around as much as possible in weak games, and even in games when we may be only up 1-0 or something she'll put some kind of random switches in. I'm not saying that "what if,"...it's a fact what she's doing, don't talk to me like i'm stupid. just wait for the playoffs, statistics show nothing. i mean really would you have believed syracuse would have won the ncaa tournament this year?
Try not to be so bitter. Nobody's attacking you. La, nice work. WA got a hold of Wando in the last match, but I'm curious about something. In region match ups, Wando is blowing teams out while WA is more conservative in the score. Is that the coach's choice to substitute early or simply the honest to goodness score?
USC2914,
Wando coach is of same vain. As soon as they are up 1-0, he puts in the freshmen forwards.
yeah i'd heard about the wando coach...i've always compared that team to my team, for the past few years we've faired exactly the same as them in anything we do...now that the coach is changing we'll see if it can benefit us
R1C --
A number of the region 7 games from several weeks ago were played underwater and/or severely rain shortened. This may explain some lower scoring victories by WA.
usc2914 --
You're absolutely right. The playoffs are everything. Statistics give us an impression of order in the middle of the season. As Mark Twain said "There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics." Good luck to you and your team in the playoffs.
lpaf