Taking the top AAAA teams and looking at the amount of Quality Wins (wins over AAAA ranked teams or teams in the All Class top 25)
1. Wando 6
2. Dorman 8
3. Lexington 11
4. Fort Mill 2
5. Mauldin 6
6. Byrnes 6
7. Hanna 5
8. Dutch Fork 7
9. Spring Valley 4 (West Florence is not in the AAAA top 15 but 18th overall????)
10.Spartanburg 2
11. Summerville 0
12. Clover 0
13. North Augusta 1
14. South Aiken 2
15. Wren 1
I think this shows more than anything who has the potential and ability to win the big game. Schedule strength is important in preparation, but winning those games is even more necessary.
Boring Tally race so I have lots of time to analyze...
Being that you are stuck smack in the shadows of Augusta National, I thought you would give geography a little consideration when consistently doing this same exercise.
1. A team can't control who is in their region.
2. Sometimes a competitive match in NC or GA is a little more convenient than finding such an opponent in SC.
Jr., if SA played the best team in Augusta and the three best teams in Atlanta, shouldn't we give them props?
Based on the analysis above, FM and Clover will both lose their first-round state playoff games and you will be considered a statistical genius!
uh-oh, here we go again. Can we save a little time and just repost this same discussion from last year?
Like the short football coach with a chip on his shoulder, Hurst goes to work. Bill, if you'd like to go do some work and research all the teams in Georgia and North Carolina and add to the existing totals if they are top 15 AAAA or above teams...instead of belly ache...be my guest
!
I get this vision in my head of Hurst locked in his basement with shelves full of papers and books working feverishly to justify his argument while...
two redneck coaches chuckle to themselves because it really doesn't matter. South Carolina doesn't seed based on rankings or strength of schedule.
Picture his face when he first read that post! I like to use a high pitched nasal voice for added effect. You know the pharmacist from Family guy? Red haired, got a nerd for a son that likes Meg? That one will work.
"Oh gawd Dale! He doesn't know there are some really, really good North Carolina teams out there that (angry stutter)...c-c-c-could really give SC teams some l-l-l-lumps!"
I just spit coffee all over my computer screen!!
Junior & CJ,
Use your "wee gee board", rednecks....and leave the statistical analysis to the Japanese guy.
You sure gotta got a pretty mouth...(banjos duel in the night)
Oink! Oink! Oink!
(How's that?)
I'm not asking you to research every school in NC and GA, I'm just tired of seeing this same old flawed analysis every year.
Believe me, the folks up here in York County are playoff-ready. Am I guaranteeing a couple of victories? Heck no.
But you can't spin it both ways if they lose. You can't say FM wasn't playoff ready because they didn't play anybody, and also say Fort Mill "choked" because they were favored.
Make up your mind. Go on record. Is Fort Mill over-rated or under-rated?
If the system is flawed, fix it. Find the AAAA ranked teams in NC. Do some research. Work the internet. Be the Pan. I don't care what you do so long as we don't have to hear the incessant whining and moaning and crying and boo hooing. Never has one man blubbered so much yet done so little. I believe in you, friend. You can do it!
Oh, and I'd take Mauldin, Byrnes, Hanna, and Dutch Fork before I'd take Ft Mill. Of course, that's the thing about the Lady Jackets - just when you count them out...
Glad we gotcha on record.
Hey, 2 quality wins doesn't say much
Or worry about the coach of a team hanging by the skin of their teeth to a mere #15 spot.
p.s. Get the stats
Dale, "Be the pan" was classic!
Obviously, only Matt Bernoski himself could rise to such glory, but here are some stats on Ft. Mill, why I did this, no idea, but here goes...
2008 - Fort Mill - Current Rank - #4
1.) Ft. Mill has lost 2 matches. Only 3 AAAA teams have lost fewer or the same amount: Lexington, Dorman, and Wando - all three of which are ranked above Ft. Mill.
2.) Ft. Mill has not lost a match that counts on their record since February 23rd. They have not LOST any match since a February 27th scrimmage against NC Private School, #2 Charlotte Latin (10-3-1). Based on the actual time that their 2/23 match was played, Ft. Mill currently holds the longest chronological official unbeaten streak in AAAA girls soccer in SC, or is at least tied with that of Dorman, who last lost on 2/23 in the Viking Cup.
3.) Below are the Rankings, Records, and Results for Ft. Mills NC opponents:
3A #4 Charlotte Catholic - Tied - 1-1 - (11-2-3)
4A #12 DW Butler - Won - 2-1 - (12-3-1)
PS #11 Charlotte Country Day - Tied - 1-1 (6-2-4)
4.) Fort Mill is the ONLY AAAA Upperstate team in SC over the last 3 years that has advanced to at least the 3rd round of the playoffs EVERY YEAR!(3 years is KEY because this includes players that could possibly still be on the current team - going back 4 or more years would not.) Dorman and Lexington have each advanced to or beyond the 3rd round twice.
5.) Over the last 3 years, Ft. Mill has defeated the following teams in the Upperstate Playoffs:
Easley, Aiken, Spartanburg, Wren, Mauldin, Byrnes, and South Aiken (x2). The two years they lost in the 3rd Round, they were defeated by Lexington, each time by 1 goal.
Regardless of rank, opponents, strength of schedule, etc., researching all of this gave me a new respect for the consistency Ft. Mill has displayed over a three year stretch in an increasingly competitive AAAA Upperstate playoff system!
That's pretty good research Ryan, I didn't even remember playing Easley. I remember playing Greenwood four years ago in a match played at Winthrop University, but I forgot all about Easley.
Strange that Fort Mill has never run into TL Hanna and I think it's been a while since they've met Dorman (not counting a scrimmage this preseason).
I can remember:
2001 - first round loss at South Aiken
2002 - finished 5th in region behind S'burg, Dorman, NW & Byrnes
2003 - lost at Lexington in OT
2004 - lost at Mauldin in upperstate championship
2005 - lost to West Ashley in state final
I was there in 2005 sitting next to lapf and remember thinking Fort Mill was going to bury them after the keeper error. Greatest game/comeback I've seen in person on a soccer pitch.
I think the hard schedule is the best way to go. Who cares if you can beat teams 10-0. It doesn't prepare you to play the best.
Shibumi,
That is correct. We are talking "wins", nobody gets credit for tough draws or victories over perennial Region 4 4A "powers" that have fallen out of the Top 15.
Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.
