You're right; my numbers are purely hypothetical...I'm just saying it's at least as valid to assume there are more examples out there beyond that one poster's experience as it is to assume there aren't.
I think you're right in that the key to getting recruited is being seen. If a coach is looking at a player who is running circles around the competition, I seriously doubt he's going to accept or reject him simply based on his club pedigree; the question is, without the kind of exposure high level club play provides, how does that player get seen?
The exceptions, I think, are the ones fortunate enough to, through pure luck, a little push from an influential party, or strategic design, find themselves in front of the right person at the right time--and in that fortunate moment, all that hard work, developed talent, and winning attitude has a chance to get noticed. The club/tournament environment drastically increases the odds of that moment happening, no doubt--and it takes both the quality of player and the opportunity to show it to make things happen.
I guess I've just worked most of my life with young people trying to make things happen without all the advantages, and I've seen some of them make it pretty big, even against the odds, just like I've seen plenty with all the advantages end up going nowhere. I'd rather tell them how much harder they're going to have to work to get where they want to be than tell them they've got a marginally north of zero chance of getting there at all.
When it comes to causality...and this just occurred to me as I was typing...is it possible that part--just part, mind you, and perhaps a small part--of the reason you don't see those players who don't get a chance to play high-level club getting recruited could be because many of them, no matter how talented they may be, are convinced that there's no use for them to try?