SC Soccer Forums SCSoccer.com Forums Club Soccer & ODP Challenge vs Classic Gap

If those numbers are true, that's scary. The population is certainly increasing I would like to think that interest in "the world's most beautiful game" is as well.

I'm not going to blame the CESA's and the Bridge's of the world for this one. People serving the lower end of the market need to do a better job of keeping kids interested as well.

Soccer Watcher: Thanks for the numbers; it certainly can be frustrating trying to get these numbers and figure out trends. I tried once to get sets of numbers from the SCYSA in terms of clubs and regions; I failed miserably.

The theory that the celebration of achievement demeans others is certainly one that many people advance as part of a several decade old "self esteem" movement; of course, others resist this theory [I enjoyed "The Incredibles".]

One thing that I would note is that if your hypothesis is valid, we should expect to see much more growth with respect to youth soccer participation in the Columbia area than in the Greenville or Charleston areas, since Greenville and Charleston each has at least one club that is producing regionally competitive teams a bit more regularly than the Columbia area. My guess -- and it's only a guess! -- is that this is not the case.

In any case, I would urge anyone interested in this topic to contact the SCYSA as well as their own local clubs to understand what they are doing to increase the number of kids that they serve and to let them know you're willing to help.

This is slightly off topic, but what the heck.

Although total SCYSA enrollment is down almost 8% over the last four years (3/01 - 18,386; 2/05 - 16,951), female participation has risen over 54% (3/01 - 4,282; 2/05 - 6,599).

One in four guys have migrated from soccer as male participation is down almost 27% (3/01 - 14,104; 2/05 - 10,352).

Co-ed teams must be ruining things for some. :-)

There are two ways to reach a decision. One way is to make your decision and then look for data that you can use to justify your decision. The other way is to look at data and then attempt to make the best decision possible based on those data.

Registration Data
Here are the data I've been able to find to date with my only opinions being that associated with the integrity, or lack thereof, associated with the data.

USYS Registration Numbers
FY 02/03 18130
FY 03/04 18493
FY 04/05 18976

The USYS numbers are collected from second-hand written reports of these numbers; however, they have an advantage of being based upon the final dues sent to the USYSA by the SCYSA.

SCYSA BOD Minutes Registration Numbers
6/4/2000 20292 [1]
11/19/2001 15781
3/25/2001 18386
6/1/2001 19504 [2]
9/17/2001 7469
11/11/2001 13788
6/9/2002 19296 [3]
1/19/2003 15596
1/18/2004 15981
9/12/2004 7380
3/13/2005 17305

The SCYSA registration numbers are snapshots and are subject to wide variations. Only two numbers are stated to be "final" numbers.

[1] "Distributed registration figures and comparison to 1998-1999"

[2] "Final total for registered players."

[3] No associated note; but given past data June seems to be the SCYSA final tally month.

Extrapolated Data
Thus, if we take a combination of the SCYSA and USYSA data, make an assumption that June data from the SCYSA was year-end data which was reported to the USYSA, then we have the following.

Combined Registration Numbers
FY 99/00 20292 [Source: SCYSA, June 2000]
FY 00/01 19504 [Source: SCYSA, June 2001]
FY 01/02 19296 [Source: SCYSA, June 2002]
FY 02/03 18130 [Source: USYSA]
FY 03/04 18493 [Source: USYSA]
FY 04/05 18976 [Source: USYSA]

It is highly suspicious, but certainly within the realm of possibility, that all of the SCYSA numbers show declining registration and all of the USYS numbers show increasing registration and that the largest year-to-year gap is between the SCYSA and USYSA numbers.

I've written the USYSA and SCYSA requesting more information; if I get it, I'll certainly post it.

[Soccer Watcher] I think the focus is now on the elite players and teams. And while it's all well and fine to raise the bar, it perpetuates a culture where if you're not on the superduper team, you're wasting your time.

[The Hammer] Kids at the older youth ages are quitting because they feel if they're not in the upper echelon (i.e. Top 20%), then they can find something else to do. [...] So in essence, you get all these clubs sparring over the 'elite player' and not many concentrating on the 80% that's left over.

[The Hammer] What I would like to see is at what ages are these guys dropping out of soccer. I'm willing to bet, although I may be wrong, that it generally takes place in the 15-17 age groups as the older guys that are not on the elite teams start to question if it's "worth all that" if they are not going to play in college. [...] There are many more options for a high school kid than just Saturday soccer. I know many that would simply rather run cross country, swim, or play football (even though they're not great at these sports). Heck, some just want to be able to go to Clemson/USC football games and if they play club then they cannot do this.

Regardless of the integrity of the data, both of you seem to have hypothesized that if players are dropping out then the reason for their dropping out are a decrease in available player slots on the "most competitive teams" and on an increase in other things to do besides playing soccer.

The questions that come to mind even assuming that the data shows this are as follows:

• Are there fewer clubs, and thus fewer teams, for these players -- particularly since the theoretical drop-off seemed to occur before Bridge or CESA?
• Why boys and not girls?
• Is there an significant increase in other things to do on weekends, e.g., hasn't the USC/Clemson game been going on a while?
• Is there any real evidence of clubs losing their focus on the "non-elite" player? If so, it seemed to occur before 2003 -- what was the causal event or events that occurred before that time in this regard?
• What are viable alternatives to "raising the bar" that don't involve eventually making South Carolina kids second-class citizens with respect to the rest of the kids in the United States, in soccer, academics, crime rates, or whatever?
• If you ran a club in a dictator-like fashion [i.e., you could do what you want], what would you specifically do differently to increase players registering with your club?
• Finally, and in my mind the most interesting question, why did you leap to the belief that some type of class warfare [i.e., the aristocratic elite versus the proletarian commoner] is at the root of all of this instead of considering decreasing percentages of players who register with the SCYSA [e.g., self-insured, US Club Soccer, etc.], with an increasing balkanization of clubs having fewer resources to penetrate into underserved communites, etc. I don't ask this to be insulting; I figure you guys have more experience then me so I'm trying to understand why you inductively leapt to this conclusion.

The SCYSA BOD Minutes don't provide enough information with which to provide many meaningful comparisons (i.e. classic vs. challenge or by age), but two more comparisons can be made from the information readily available.

Classic enrollment has risen almost 4% over the last four years (3/01 - 4,429; 2/05 - 4,596), while recreation enrollment has fallen a little over 11% (3/01 - 13,957; 2/05 - 12,355).

During the same four year period the Coastal region has suffered enrollment losses of almost 25% (3/01 - 6,479; 2/05 - 4,596). The rest of the state is virtually unchanged as the Midstate region is down about 2% (3/01 - 6,221; 2/05 - 6,101), while the Piedmont region has grown almost 3% (3/01 - 5,686; 2/05 - 5,836). The 2/05 SCYSA data includes the registration of an additional 137 out-of-state players, which implies that the 2/05 registration figures are residence based. An out-of-state breakout was not provided for 3/01.

While it would be interesting to know if some of the decline in recreation enrollment is due to an earlier migration to classic, it is clear that the something has happened to overall enrollment in the Coastal district.

It seems equally clear that the repeated mergers in the Piedmont have not negatively impacted participation vis-a-vis the rest of the state.

Enrollment in the entire state, including the Piedmont, has certainly fallen relative to population growth, but that is an analysis for someone with far more time on their hands...

zzzzzzzzz: Interesting stuff. Your posts on girls versus boys enrollment and now on geographic enrollment have been fascinating.

Here's my question about this snapshot data - what percentage of recreation players hadn't signed up by February of 2005 and what percentage had't signed up by March of 2001 versus June end-of-season data? The answer might be 0% with respect to both in which case the SCYSA data is sterling - but I just can't tell.

A lot of great discussion on the stats for participation but the question remains with respect to a drop in the numbers. All of the ideas discussed are reasons that contribute. At least for the girls up until about U16 soccer provides mostly a social function. During the mid-teens a lot of them reflect on the work required for the upcoming season, the travel for tournaments and the anticipated butt-whippings by the two or three major forces in the state and decide it just ain't worth the effort any longer. As posted, it is obvious to most by this point that they are not going to have the opportunity to play college ball and the expense and work just isn't attractive. They get all the social interaction needed at the school and soccer is no longer needed for this. Three to four a week practices, scrimmages and the dreaded tournaments actually take away from the high school social experience, which has become primary.
Now if you happen to play on one of the "butt-whipping" club teams things are a little different. Typically, these teams stay intact because of their successes but the same outside influences are still there and do create a distraction. By U16 you generally have a base team that is going to stay together, play college ball at some level and are willing to put up with the travel, expense, etc.
Just an observation of a parent that has dealt with all of this and continue to hear about it from a daughter.