SC Soccer Forums SCSoccer.com Forums Club Soccer & ODP State Cup Begins 11/12

>>[Chapindad] The problem comes from MPSC who is getting killed in the premier league.<<

It's interesting you'd pick MPSC U17G as your example; they have won a game in RIIIPL -- something that a lot of South Carolina teams in the past haven't been able to do. From what I hear, they're not a bad team.

Here's the link for the MPSC recent soccer tournament ( U17 girls white division) :
http://soccer.scoreomatic.com/v4/view/tournament.aspx?tournId=3739&g=4&d=49&l=42#division

It looks like MPSC U 17 girls beat CSC 1-0. Probably could have gone either way. They seem to be evenly matched!

It's always interesting when State Cup comes around. Strange things do happen. That's what makes soccer so interesting!

Well... correct my timeframe. CESA was "new" at the state cup. What I notice is that with exception of a few teams, the turnover exists. For example: Summerville wins state and replaces St giles who then merges with GFC and wins state back as CESA or something equivalent boys or girls it does not matter; whilst Summerville does not make it out of the playoff game or semis. I know that there are teams that are clearly head and shoulders above others, but if you look at the Semifinal games on the previous year you would see many close games. Which to me means that 1 thru 4 are somewhat equivalent.

My personal experience as a player and now and then coach, is that teams have a tendency to play at the level of the opposition. You would probably agree with the statement. This is a mental condition

Therefore:
1- Premier teams see higher competition - true
2- Premier teams do not see the SCYSA reps except maybe for tourneys - True
3- Premier team can come in cocky or with confidence shot - depends on the premier experience and the team chemistry
4- SCYSA rep is clearly the underdog - true

To me the tie breaker is 3 and 4 if the skill level is somewhat equal. And it is a lot easier to emphasize 4 than it is to de-emphasize 3.

In my opinion, at the state cup level the mental aspect usually is the deciding factor.

On the other side, for example, it would be interesting to see how Bridge 90 gold prepares for DSC or CESA while going thru the U15 unopposed


Dr. Phil...

futbol(soccer): I don't understand the reference to CESA being "new" to the state cup given that the RIIIPL season ends as the state cup begins and thus CESA came into the state challenge cup with your #3 and #4 in operation.

I do understand, however, what you're basing your belief structure on: that many (if not almost all) teams in the later stages of the state challenge cup are basically equal and as such the mental aspect of being an underdog and/or being arrogant is usually the deciding factor. It will be interesting to see if your premise turns out to be correct. If so, we should expect to see well over 70%-80% of the state championships be teams from clubs other than CESA, right?

I meant CESA was new last state cup...

Based on what I know, 70 to 80 is to high. Many of the CESA teams are very good, others will come in second and some will be left out. So the more correct way to look at it, in my mind, is the future two reps in premier compared to the current two reps.
A 60% change in the combination being different is likely (this could be CESA and someone new or R3PL team 2 and somoeone new or 2 new teams).

Mind you I am pulling this stuff out of the air. There is no way to forecast the intangibles (Home field, refereeing, weather, etc.)

Bridge FA U-15 Boys Gold have been preparing for DSC and CESA by playing in the U-16 age group at tournaments. Last two tournaments they have played in they came in 2nd place in the U-16 bracket. I think this team will do very well in state playoffs after seeing them play at the Mount Pleasant tourney.

futbol(soccer): If we assume all teams are equal, then in any age bracket with eight teams and three rounds there is a 93.75% probability that one or both of the teams that reach the finals were not the incoming premier teams.

Your premise that "...at the state cup level the mental aspect usually is the deciding factor." coupled with your theory that emphasizing the underdog factor would seem to mean that we should see over a 93.75% change in one or both of the teams (assuming complete equality).

Thus, if only a 60% change in the combination occurs, that means that at least 33.75 points are due to other factors: coaching, talent, increased challenge of RIIIPL, etc.) That's where I'm being woefully stupid here; I don't understand how the advantage of "SCYSA rep is clearly the underdog - true" is manifested in your prediction.

Interesting stuff...thanks for discussing this.

P.S. As an exercise left to the reader, what is the probability given equal teams that a club with one set of teams in each bracket of the U15-U18 challenge cup will win all of the titles? (Hint: It's pretty low.)

P.P.S. LE Dude - I know...if you wanted to read a probability textbook, you'd take Probability 101...sorry...

Heh..as soon as I saw the "%" I started scrolling down.. then I saw that I was being addressed.

..not really sure why.. but.. you are right. Probability (math in general) is not my forte.

Anyway..I'm sure your post was excellent as usual. Carry on.

F.Y.I.
RIIIPL 10-30-05 U-15 Boys CESA-3 DSC-2.
Looks like CESA's in pretty good shape come tourney time.

Wow, what a quandry now. CESA Premier and DSC both have the same record with two games to play, CESA ahead based on head to head.

DSC has two games this weekend. CESA doesn't have their final two games scheduled until after the first round of the state cup.

Any ideas on what the SCYSA is going to do with this one, with the first round bye at stake?