SC Soccer Forums SCSoccer.com Forums Club Soccer & ODP CUFC Tryout Analysis

>>[Flying Soccer] I hope that CUFC will give CESA a run for their money and take many state championships away from them.<<

As far as I can tell, in the age brackets U13 and above, CUFC issued 501 invitations and CESA issued 520 -- within a few percentage points of an equal number. The two clubs at the select level appear to be approximately equivalent; thus, by the numbers, you'd expect CUFC to take the same number of challenge championships as CESA.

Should be a huge year for CUFC!

>>[who_me?] Does anyone know anything about success of the U17 and U18 Cesa midlands effort? Wouldn't it be fun for the area if the local CESA team was just as strong as the CUFC is reported to be?<<

I've heard nothing about CESA-Columbia having any older teams. Now, that doesn't mean they don't -- I've got no insight into CESA-Columbia's tryouts or invitations -- but I highly doubt that any older team would be as competitive as CUFC.

I think Lexington's U17B team is going to be very tough.

Chico,

Does the number of invitations really translate into championships? I would think that overall tryouts numbers would be a more accurate corelation. We probably don't have availability to the tryout numbers thus, the use of the invitation numbers?

>>[USMNT2014] Does the number of invitations really translate into championships?<<

Probably, but it would be a correlation only because CESA has issued so many invitations in the last few years [because they've had more teams than anyone else] and has won so many state championships. In other words, I think it's a weak correlation at best.

>>I would think that overall tryouts numbers would be a more accurate corelation.<<

If you assume a homogeneous distribution of talent, then either might show a correlation. Of course, there really isn't a homogeneous distribution of talent -- and perhaps even more importantly what the club does in terms of training and coaching makes a huge difference.

>>We probably don't have availability to the tryout numbers thus, the use of the invitation numbers?<<

You're right; the data is incredibly limited and we're using whatever data is available. Whether the data is valid as a predictor or not is a tremendous question. That's why I qualified using the term "by the numbers."

Last year someone talked about the odds of CESA repeating a "sweep" -- I noted that the probability was very small given the teams in the playoffs at that time. Sure enough, CESA lost two boys playoffs to Bridge and NECSA won the U18B bracket. The creation of CUFC and the number of teams and players they are sponsoring means to me that the issue is no longer how many state championships are "taken" from CESA; instead, the expectation has to be that CUFC will win as many as CESA in the 2006-2007 season. Anything else it seems to me would have to be a classified as a disappointment from a CUFC point of view.

Richard Jaeckel .... Sgt. Clyde Bowren... was the other survivor of the DIRTY DOZEN raid.

The merger should bring more parity to CESA's dominance on the girls side.

many of dreher's players tried out for the u 17 lexington team...as they have followed berson from club to club...one of drehers players also, made the u 18 challenge team for cufc

Why does Berson jump from club to club? First, NECSA, then CRSA, then CSC, now Lexington??

I love statistics and I love pretending they give us the ability to predict the future. Chico is right, we are taking a limited data set and trying to extrapolate all kinds of meaning. All kindsof things should happen, but at the end of the day there is going to be a kid who steps up and changes a key game, a superstar who fall flat, and a coach who inspires a team to be more then they ever thought they could be. Thats why they play the games and thats why I love it so much!

CESA/CUFC is exactly what this state needs to push coaches and players to the next level.

>>[Coach P] Don't you think this is a pretty lofty expectation for the first year? I would be happy to see something nearing parity between CESA, CUFC, and Bridge over the next three years.<<

I only know two ways to answer this: by referencing history and by referencing size in terms of teams and players.

First, history. In its first year, CESA swept the U15-U18 age brackets. In its first year, Bridge won two of the four boys age groups.

Second, relative size. CUFC is much bigger than Bridge (as far as I can tell, even with the classic programs of its alliance clubs); in select, it appears to be approximately equivalent to CESA. Thus, I would think that like CESA and Bridge, CUFC would be expected by its players and parents to start hot out of the gate.

Look at the comments on this thread and I think you'll see a fair representation of many CUFC folks regarding the expectations of CUFC in its first season.