gdb: No one can guarantee anything when it comes to scholarships or even playing D1 and I never said or implied that they could!!! Anyone who has their child playing solely because they are expecting their child to get a scholarship is doing it for the wrong reason.
I'm still a little confused about where you are going with this. You started this thread and asked if people thought the commitments for club soccer were hurting the high school experience. Now you are asking which sport (basketball or soccer) should a child play to have the best shot at a scholarship.
I can tell you from experience that contrary to the popular belief on this forum you DO NOT have to play R3PL, ECNL, USSFDA, ODP to be offered a scholarship to play in college. My daughter that graduated this past year was actively recruited and offered scholarship money by 2 colleges (one private, one D1). My daughter did not play ODP and was only on a R3PL team one year, she played her last 2 years in the SCSCL and on her school team. Ironically, after 14 years of playing soccer she decided she was finished. She is not going to play in college and is not going to either one of the schools that offered soccer money.
As a side note - Both colleges applied the lottery money, academic money and any other monies they could dig up before they made any sort of athletic offer. In total is was enough to cover the cost at either school. I throw that out there to point out the importance of the academics not just the athletics.
The best advice I could give is let the child decide!
