SCVarsity.com's view of SCHSL Realignment for 2008
When the 45-day enrollment numbers were announced earlier this month, it caused a lot of conversations over the water cooler around the state. Based on what was listed, be prepared for a number of changes to all classifications come realignment for 2008-2010. While we will continue to hear rumors on a 5-class system for South Carolina, SCVarsity will take a look at realignment using the same 4-class set up. Some early realignment scenarios have not taken into account some of the new schools opening up in the next three years.
One of the big questions that will impact AAAA is the South Aiken actual number. One report has them at 1436, while another has them at 1676. The latter figure makes them have the EXACT same number as Aiken, which leads to speculation that someone was given some wrong information and given Aiken High's number as opposed to South Aiken's. South Aiken was at 1411 a year ago, and a jump of 265 students in that part of the state is hard to believe.
Even with all these changes that could take affect a year from now, the 2010 realignment could be even more interesting. By then both Union and Dillon Counties will probably have consolidated; Wando will have split with the new Mt. Pleasant/East Cooper High; and the Rock Hill, Lexington and Spartanburg areas would have added another new high school.
Even with some discrepancy in the actual numbers in the different reports coming out, we can still get a good idea of what the regions will look like. Let's take a look now at what we at SCVarsity think should happen in 2008, should these numbers and rankings hold true.
***The following analysis and scenarios are based on if Ashley Ridge and Cane Bay both begin play in the fall of 2008, the first semester of the realignment. Should these schools not begin play until the fall of 2009, then Class AAA, AA and A would look differently, as every school in Class AA and A would move up two spots in the enrollment rankings, meaning Emerald and Southside would be AAA and Green Sea-Floyds and Blacksburg would be AA. The following is assuming A.R.H and C.B.H. begin in 2008 and are placed into AAA.
Class AAAA Notes:
* Pickens will not need to petition to stay AAA. With Nations Ford coming into AAAA, Pickens will stay down.
* Riverside will be AAAA barring a huge jump by Lugoff-Elgin or Woodmont. Don't expect that to happen. But do expect to see the Warriors in AAAA.
* Blythewood is a lock for AAAA
* South Pointe, unless a petition is granted, will drop to AAA.
* Bye bye Lower Richland, South Aiken and Battery Creek.
* The Columbia and Pee Dee area regions get their 6th team back. Carolina Forest will move into Region VI while you can expect to see Lancaster move into Region V with the Blythewood and Dentsville area schools.
* There still will have to two regions with only five teams. It only makes sense to make those the two low country regions. They can cross-bracket for non-region games and still not have too far to travel.
* Orangeburg-Wilkinson gets moved back to Region IV.
* Gaffney can move to Region III, or (stay with me on this one….) Gaffney stays in Region II, Laurens to Region II, and Mauldin and Hillcrest going to Region I. A lot of movement however with that latter scenario but it was done back in the 2002 realignment.
* York's numbers are still a question. If they end up with AAA numbers, expect a petition with Pickens to switch spots.
* Hartsville is the smallest AAAA, but expect them to "find" students at the magnet school Mayo to remain AAAA. However, it may be time for the Foxes to drop down, but then Region VI would be back to five teams, something we're all trying to avoid. Again, a petition with Pickens would be in the works if Hartsville drops below the AAAA/AAA line.
Class AAA Notes:
* A lot of changes here then what a lot of rumors have said. Ashley Ridge and Cane Bay will open as AAA schools, which means Emerald and Southside will remain AA.
* Chapman and West Oak make the jump up to AAA while Lower Richland, Battery Creek and South Aiken move down from AAAA.
* For as much talk as you hear about the growth of Horry County, no schools other then Carolina Forest are threatening a jump to AAAA. Socastee is the next closest but most of the growth in that part of the county is in the St. James area.
* Bye bye Strom Thurmond, Timberland, Stall and North Charleston down to AA.
* One question not many have thought of is, how long before administrators and coaches vote to count private school enrollments as 1.5 students per, moving Bishop England up to AAA. This is long overdue, and it may happen by 2010.
Class AA Notes:
* Jasper County will be split, as previously reported, back into two schools. Both will be Class A.
* Timberland, Strom Thurmond, and Eau Claire will move down.
* If Hemingway's numbers are correct, and there is speculation they're not, they also move up. Hemingway's 45-day numbers are similar to the 135-days numbers from last spring, so they very well could be correct.
* The current AA schools only lose one school to AAA, Chapman, this go 'round, but would lose four to Class A: Blacksburg and Buford (again), Ninety Six and CA Johnson. Ninety Six is always good for a petition to remain AA, but its time to give that up. They are well down past the AA/A border and can easily fit into Region I-A without travel issues.
* What to do with Region VIII will be a big question. With only four true teams remaining (Cheraw, Central, Lee Central, Andrew Jackson), who do you put in there with them? Do you move Cheraw and/or Central to Region VII with Dillon, Marion and Mullins? Do you move just Cheraw to Region VII? Do you move Dillon to Region VIII? Do you move Columbia, Eau Claire and Keenan and join with Lee Central, Andrew Jackson and Central? Regardless, there's going to have to be some long road trips by someone.
* There should be some major movement of teams all over Class AA from one region to another. No one is safe.
Class A Notes:
* Class A welcomes back Blacksburg and Buford after a quick two years with AA.
* Ninety Six (see above) should hold off on that petition and stay in Class A. They'll be much more competitive in all sports.
* West Hardeeville and Ridgeland come in as new schools when Jasper County High splits back to two schools.
* Region III goes from just 5 teams two years ago, to 7 in 2008, when Buford comes back down.
* Most of the other Class A regions will look very similar to the current alignment.
SUMMARY:
* Up to AAAA Division I: Byrnes
* Down to AAAA Division II: Northwestern
* New AAAA school: Nation Ford
* Up to AAAA from AAA: Carolina Forest, Blythewood, Riverside
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* Down to AAA from AAAA: Lower Richland, South Aiken, Battery Creek, South Pointe
* New AAA school: Ashley Ridge, Cane Bay
* Up to AAA from AA: Chapman, West Oak
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* Down to AA from AAA: Timberland, Strom Thurmond, Stall, Eau Claire, North Charleston
* Up to AA from A: Hemingway
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* Down to A from AA: Blacksburg, Buford, CA Johnson, Ninety Six
* New A schools: Ridgeland, West Hardeeville
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4A
R1 - Easley, Greenwood, T.L. Hanna, Laurens, Westside, Wren
R2 - Boiling Springs, Byrnes, Dorman, Gaffney, Hillcrest, Mauldin, Spartanburg
R3 - Clover, Fort Mill, Nations Ford, Northwestern, Rock Hill, South Pointe, York
R4 - Aiken, Irmo, Lexington, North Augusta, Orangeburg-Wilkinson, White Knoll
R5 - Blythewood, Dutch Fork, Lancaster, Richland Northeast, Ridge View, Spring Valley
R6 - Carolina Forest, Conway, Hartsville, South Florence, Sumter, West Florence
R7 - Berkeley, Goose Creek, James Island, Stratford, Wando
R8 - Beaufort, Colleton County, Fort Dorchester, Summerville, West Ashley
3A
R1 - Belton-Honea Path, Daniel, Pickens, Seneca, West-Oak, Woodmont
R2 - Berea, Blue Ridge, Greenville, J.L. Mann, Travelers Rest, Wade Hampton-G
R3 - Chapman, Clinton, Eastside, Greer, Riverside, Union
R4 - Chester, Dreher, Fairfield Central, A.C. Flora, Lower Richland, Lugoff-Elgin
R5 - Airport, Brookland-Cayce, Chapin, Emerald, Midland Valley, South Aiken, Swansea
R6 - Camden, Crestwood, Darlington, Lakewood, Marlboro County, Wilson
R7 - Georgetown, Lake City, Myrtle Beach, North Myrtle Beach, St. James, Socastee
R8 - Ashley Ridge, Battery Creek, Bluffton, Hilton Head, Lake Marion
2A
R1 - Abbeville, Crescent, Liberty, Palmetto, Pendleton, Walhalla
R2 - Broome, Carolina, Chesnee, Newberry, Southside, Woodruff
R3 - Batesburg-Leesville, Gilbert, Mid-Carolina, Pelion, Saluda, Strom Thurmond
R4 - Andrew Jackson, Central, Columbia, Eau Claire, Keenan, Lee Central
R5 - Barnwell, Cane Bay, Edisto, Silver Bluff, Wade Hampton-H, Woodland
R6 - Bishop England, Burke, Garrett, Hanahan, North Charleston, Stall
R7 - Andrews, Hemingway, Kingstree, Manning, Timberland, Waccamaw
R8 - Aynor, Cheraw, Dillon, Loris, Marion, Mullins
1A
R1 - Calhoun Falls, Dixie, Governor's School-Math, McCormick, Ninety Six, Tamasee-Salem, Thornwell, Ware Shoals
R2 - Blacksburg, Christ Church, Greenville Charter, Jonesville, Landrum, Lockhart, SCSDB, Southside Christian
R3 - Buford, Chesterfield, Great Falls, Indian land, Lewisville, McBee, North Central
R4 - Calhoun County, Fox Creek, Hunter-Kinard-Tyler, C.A. Johnson, North, Ridge Spring-Monetta, Wagener-Salley
R5 - Allendale-Fairfax, Bamberg-Ehrhardt, Blackville-Hilda, Denmark-Olar, Estill, Ridgeland, West Hardeeville, Williston-Elko
R6 - Academic Magnet, Baptist Hill, Bethune-Bowman, Branchville, Cross, Lincoln, Military Magnet, St. John's
R7 - East Clarendon, Governor's School-Arts, Hannah-Pamplico, Lamar, C.E. Murray, Scott's Branch, Timmonsville
R8 - Carvers Bay, Creek Bridge, Green Sea-Floyds, Johnsonville, Lake View, Latta
