Logic dictates that players who have played well in the past will do so again. Those who have not reached as high in the past may acheive greatness now but they will have to outshine a player everyone already knows to be great. Yes it is all about how you do this year, but... expectations are set based on past play.
If a player was a superstar only during thier senior season and another was a superstar for say 3 seasons and they are both about even that final year who wins?
In a way it is the same argument as someone who plays for a winning program, they get the glory and wins thus they standout. There is a reason the winner often comes from a top playoff team, more games; more wins; more visiability.
As for the player from FM she has as good shot a shot as any as all the right factors are there, just has to face the high expectations already there!
