1st off - Beezer did you watch the Portugal v France match at all? Both teams played a 4-5-1 (albeit the French play more like a 4-2-1-1 and I left the other 2 out for a reason because Ribery and Zidane run wherever the heck they want so they can either be listed as midfielders or fowards) so the 4-4-1-1 by the Italians won't be any more crowed in the midfield than it was in the match between France v Portugal
2nd off - France has 2 of the best holding midfielders in the world, so far no team (not even an excellent Spanish side who was personally my favourite to win at the beginning of the tournament could get through them) has broken through the French "back 6" yet (which is lucky for France b/c Barthez basically sucks and is very suspect in net for Les Bleus)
3rd off - The Italians backs like to push up quite often (Cannavaro is basically their last line) so I feel, just my opinion, Zidane, Ribery, Malouda, Sagnol, and Abidal are going to exploit that and back to point 2, they can because of Viera and Makelele in their holding spots

After all that, I pick -
France 1
Italy 0

France will sneak 1 in like they did against Portugal and then will pull Henry off in the last 10 min for a more defensive striker and will sit on that 1 goal to see Zidane off with a 2nd World Cup for him and Les Bleus.