(1) Nothing is a guarantee.
(2) I mean ELITE—so I disagree, Hurst66. SKILL trumps at the elite levels. Maybe athleticism trumps at U14, but then it starts to lose. At the elite levels, the pool is rich with skill AND athleticism; percentages favor having greater skill if you have put in the time. . .
(3) Sure, there are mediocre and weak college teams—soccer players who are either lacking natural talent or failed to put in the effort, there is a place for them. ELITE college programs? Nope.
An example: Our national team (the A team) is ELITE for the US. BUT some of the players who are able to make our ELITE team would never see a chance on an INTERNATIONAL elite team since the US team is at best slightly above average. The pool for talent on the elite international teams is different than the US pool. . .